bid/ask depth and implied probability on named conflict markets (e.g. 'Israel x Hezbollah war in 2026', 'China invades Taiwan before 2027')
This is a catalogued data feed with a research idea attached, not a validated edge. Being listed here means it has a specific source and a one-sentence causal mechanism mapped to what it should move — it doesn’t mean it has cleared the five-stage validation gate (point-in-time hygiene, out-of-sample holdout, multiple-testing correction, and the portfolio-layer backstop). As of today, every score on this site is prior-only; zero signals in the catalog have been promoted to “measured” status. See the methodology page for the full validation process and current counts.
Browse the rest of Geopolitics & Conflict — Conflict, sanctions, and geopolitical-risk signals mapped to the equities, currencies, and commodities they move.